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Boreal forest faces uncertain future

New research is predicting the effects of major threats to Canada’s boreal forest, in the short and long term and advising governments to get ready for change.

An article that was released – though still being edited – modelled the effects of fire, drought, mountain pine beetle and spruce budworm on boreal forest wood supplies, in light of expected changes in climate.

These maps show the areas of Canada’s boreal forest, where timber is harvested industrially, that have been impacted by four main disturbances—and show how those disturbances could affect more and more of the boreal forest in the future. map courtesy of Dominique Boucher

“These are probably the main disturbances that the boreal forest in Canada is experiencing currently,” said Yan Boulanger, a co-author of the research article.

The study area dipped into the NWT, below Great Slave Lake, but focused on areas where wood is harvested industrially, which does not happen on a large scale in the NWT.

Boulanger said that while the study didn’t look fully into the NWT’s data, the forest here will face the same threats – “especially for fire, for drought.”

“We have a lot of different studies that are projecting very sharp increases in forest fires in (the NWT), especially along the Mackenzie River,” he said.

New research is predicting boreal forests such as those found in the Deh Cho and South Slave regions are susceptible to the effects of drought and fire and governments need to prepare for this change. Michele Taylor photo

The study established a baseline period by looking at the data covering these disturbances between 1981 and 2010 and simulated the effects in these areas as far into the future as 2100.

“In our last simulation period covering 2071 to 2100,” reads the report, “nearly all timber volumes in most of Canada’s forest regions could be at risk of being affected by at least one of the four natural disturbances considered in our analysis, a six-fold increase relative to the baseline period.”

The Department of Environment and Natural Resources’ latest forest health data shows a 108 per cent increase in spruce budworm population, as well as increases in other pest populations that weren’t looked at in Boulanger’s study, including forest tent caterpillar and willow blotch leafminer.

As well, 2017 was the fifth most active fire season in the past 30 years, with 262 fires burning 1,030,259 hectares of the 80-million-hectare boreal forest.

“The main point is that we have to adapt at some point and to consider that in the future there will be great changes in the natural disturbance regime,” said Boulanger, citing risks both from the perspectives of industry and ecology.

“Adaptation is, of course, key in this process and there could be some ways to at some point mitigate those impacts.

“For fires, there could be some management that could be done to favour more deciduous trees instead of conifers trees because they are less flammable. That's one example. But at some point, considering those changes upfront is a much better idea than considering them after the disturbance that occurred.”