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Hay River and Fort Smith among 10 Canadian communities at greatest risk of wildfires: report

Both communities are 'working to advance several fuel-reduction projects and maintain them for the future'
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A wall of fire heads toward Hay River in 2023. The community is making substantial efforts to safeguard against future wildfires, according to GNWT Wildfire Prevention and Mitigation manager Mike Westick. Photo courtesy of Hans Wiedemann

Fort Smith and Hay River are at greater risk of wildfire than the vast majority of other Canadian communities, according to a new report from AISIX, a Vancouver-based firm that specializes in climate change-related data analytics. 

The new report, published on Jan. 2, used historical data and a cutting-edge fire-spreading model called Cell2Fire2, which simulates how wildfires move across landscapes based on factors like fuel availability, terrain and weather. The analyses focused on Canadian communities with 30,000 residents or fewer, and considered burn probabilities within 10 km of each community.

Hay River and Fort Smith both ranked in the top 10, along with Swan Hills, Alta., and seven communities in British Columbia. 

The report is intended “to aid government agencies, local authorities and residents in taking the necessary precautions to prevent loss of life and property,” according to an AISIX news release. Dr. Gio Roberti, a climate risk scientist who serves as the firm's head of product, stated that the report contains “novel insights.”

However, GNWT Wildfire Prevention and Mitigation manager Mike Westick was not surprised to see either Hay River or Fort Smith — both of which have been evacuated due to wildfires in recent years — make the top-10 list. 

“The risk of wildfires is persistent in the boreal forest and is known in the areas identified in this report,” Westwick said. “We are alive to the issue of the potential for increased wildfire activity as the climate changes and have increased investment several-fold in our wildfire prevention and mitigation section of business accordingly.”

Both Hay River and Fort Smith are “working to advance several fuel-reduction projects and maintain them for the future,” according to Westwick — “as are numerous communities across the Northwest Territories who have elevated wildfire threats.”

“The Community Wildfire Protection Plan implementation has received federal funding of nearly $20 million over the next few years to help advanced fuel reduction and fuel removal projects around communities,” he said, which is intended to "increase wildfire resilience and preparedness."

“We work with communities to identify additional fuel reduction and removal projects consistently – including seeking opportunities to advance prescribed and cultural burning projects which will improve local wildfire resilience," he added. 

The key to effective wildfire management, Westwick said, is “mitigating the threats before wildfires happen.”

There are several other initiatives underway across the territory in support of that objective, including FireSmart programs designed to teach residents how to reduce the risk of wildfire. These programs are available “across all forested communities in the snow-free season,” according to Westwick. 

The GNWT also supports “cross-training with municipal fire departments to advance knowledge and expand local program delivery capacity for FireSmart programs and principles,” he said.

Nineteen of the territory’s 29 forested communities have received cross-training in FireSmart over the last 12 months. 

Hay River mayor Kandis Jameson said she had immediate questions when NNSL Media brought the AISIX report to her attention. 

While the town was devastated by wildfires in the 2023, much of the trees in the surrounding area burned away during that summer, theoretically reducing the risk of future wildfires.

"You lose half a million hectares of fuel around your community, you're definitely in a better spot, right?" she said. "Were these things taken into consideration when we made the list?

"I don't believe we're in the top 10."

Jameson said she reached out to AISIX for further information on the report, but did not hear back. NNSL Media also contacted the firm, but did not get a response by press time.

"I don't need my residents terrified over something that might not be true," Jameson said. "How [does AISIX] feel this is helpful? I have no idea. To me, it's fear-mongering."



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