In a press conference on Jan. 26, Minister of Health and Social Services Julie Green said the GNWT is hopes to bring the public health emergency that has been in place since March 2020 to an end this spring, although she did not give a more specific date.
“The end of the public health emergency will not be the end of our management of outbreaks,” said Green. She said some services would instead be transferred from the Covid secretariat to the health department to manage future outbreaks.
Also on Jan. 26, the GNWT made public for the first time its modelling for Covid cases and hospitalizations for the period of Sept. 1 to March 9.
These models predict that the territory is roughly at the peak of the current wave, with daily new cases predicted to drop from a seven-day average of about 140 leading up to Jan. 26, to less than 60 by March 9. Hospitalizations, which had a 14-day average of eight per day as of Jan. 19, are also expected to drop to about two by March 9.
“Modeling is not a crystal ball,” André Corriveau, the territory’s deputy chief public health officer said. “So they’re not necessarily accurate predictions, and there are inherent limitations that must be kept in mind.”
The status report cautions that there are still many uncertainties when it comes to predicting future Covid cases, including diminishing immunity and fluctuating compliance with health orders. Such models also decline in accuracy the farther into the future they project.
Corriveau said that although this modelling shows the GNWT is roughly at the peak of the Omicron wave, “we still expect to see a high level of activity until at least the middle of February.”
Regarding the health order that was introduced earlier this month, Corriveau said, “There might be some aspects of it that might continue related to limits and capacity, but we seem to be on track to allow some resumption of higher-risk activity because of some of the benefits that are associated with those sports.”
This health order, introduced on Jan. 7, further limits indoor gathering capacities and prohibits “high-risk” activities such as indoor contact sports, singing and dancing. It was supposed to remain in place through Jan. 21, but was extended to Jan. 30.
Corriveau also defended the territory’s decision to return schools to in-person learning. He pointed out that children are much less likely to have adverse reactions to Covid than the general population. “On the other hand, there’s accumulated evidence that there are significant adverse effects to children’s well being and their social development when we insist that they attend school remotely,” he said.
Shannon Barnett-Aikman, the Assistant Deputy Minister of Education and Culture, echoed Corriveau’s comments, saying “We know that being in school provides benefits that are difficult to replicate if not impossible to replicate via remote learning,” such as extra-curricular activities.